Compartmentalisation and groundwater–surface water interactions in a prospective shale gas basin: Assessment using variance analysis and multivariate statistics on water quality data

An environmental concern with hydraulic fracturing for shale gas is the risk of groundwater and surface water contamination. Assessing this risk partly involves the identification and understanding of groundwater–surface water interactions because potentially contaminating fluids could move from one water body to the other along hydraulic pathways. In this study, we use water quality data from a prospective shale gas basin to determine: if surface water sampling could identify groundwater compartmentalisation by low-permeability faults; and if surface waters interact with groundwater in underlying bedrock formations, thereby indicating hydraulic pathways. Variance analysis showed that bedrock geology was a significant factor influencing surface water quality, indicating regional-scale groundwater–surface water interactions despite the presence of an overlying region-wide layer of superficial deposits averaging 30–40 m thickness. We propose that surface waters interact with a weathered bedrock layer through the complex distribution of glaciofluvial sands and gravels. Principal component analysis showed that surface water compositions were constrained within groundwater end-member compositions. Surface water quality data showed no relationship with groundwater compartmentalisation known to be caused by a major basin fault. Therefore, there was no chemical evidence to suggest that deeper groundwater in this particular area of the prospective basin was reaching the surface in response to compartmentalisation. Consequently, in this case compartmentalisation does not appear to increase the risk of fracking-related contaminants reaching surface waters, although this may differ under different hydrogeological scenarios.     

Monazite CHIME/EPMA dating of Erinpura granitoid deformation: Implications for Neoproterozoic tectono-thermal evolution of NW India

The in-situ “chemical” Th–U–Pb dating of monazite with the electron microprobe is used to unravel the Neoproterozoic tectono-thermal history of the “Erinpura Granite” terrane in the foreland of the Delhi Fold Belt (DFB) in the NW Indian craton. These granitoids are variably deformed and show effects of shearing activity. Monazites from the Erinpura granitoids recorded two main events; (1) protolith crystallization at 863 ± 23 Ma and (2) recrystallization and formation of new Th-poor monazite at 775 ± 26 Ma during shear overprint. Some components of the Erinpura granitoids, such as the Siyawa Granite and granites exposed near Sirohi town, show evidence of migmatization. This migmatization event is documented by anatexis and associated monazite crystallization at 779 ± 16 Ma. The age data indicate an overlap in timing between anatectic event and ductile shear deformation. The end of the tectono-thermal event in the Sirohi area is constrained by a 736 ± 6 Ma Ar–Ar muscovite age data from the ductile shear zone.     

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

Nutrient Inputs, Phytoplankton Response, and CO2 Variations in a Semi-Enclosed Subtropical Embayment, Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii

The marine shelf areas in subtropical and tropical regions represent only 35% of the total shelf areas globally, but receive a disproportionately large amount of water (65%) and sediment (58%) discharges that enter such environments. Small rivers and/or streams that drain the mountainous areas in these climatic zones deliver the majority of the sediment and nutrient inputs to these narrow shelf environments; such inputs often occur as discrete, episodic introductions associated with storm events. To gain insight into the linked biogeochemical behavior of subtropical/tropical mountainous watershed-coastal ocean ecosystems, this work describes the use of a buoy system to monitor autonomously water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and physical forcing associated with local storm events in the coastal ocean of southern Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay. Storm events cause most of the fluvial nutrient, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon inputs to Kaneohe Bay. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to values of 48 and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of such nutrient subsidies by phytoplankton causes rapid declines of N levels, return to N-limited conditions, and subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over timescales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. The enhanced productivity may promote the drawing down of pCO₂ and lowering of surface water column carbonate saturation states, and in some events, a temporary shift from N to P limitation. The productivity-driven CO₂ drawdown may temporarily lead to air-to-sea transfer of atmospheric CO₂ in a system that is on an annual basis a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere due to calcification and perhaps heterotrophy. Storms may also strongly affect proximal coastal zone pCO₂ and hence carbonate saturation state due to river runoff flushing out high pCO₂ soil and ground waters. Mixing of the CO₂-charged water with seawater causes a salting out effect that releases CO₂ to the atmosphere. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific region are similar to Kaneohe Bay, and our work provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO₂ dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air?Csea CO₂ exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, proximal and distal. It cannot be overemphasized that this research illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing that are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Finally, the work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the biogeochemical and physical responses of coastal subtropical/tropical coral reef ecosystems to climatic perturbations.     

Sensitivity of ENSO characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme in a coupled GCM

A fast coupled global climate model (CGCM) is used to study the sensitivity of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme. With no flux correction applied our CGCM reveals typical bias in the background state: for instance, the cold tongue in the tropical east Pacific becomes too cold, thus degrading atmospheric sensitivity to variations of sea surface temperature (SST). Sufficient atmospheric sensitivity is essential to ENSO. Our adjustment scheme aims to sustain atmospheric sensitivity by counteracting the SST drift in the model. With reduced bias in the forcing of the atmosphere, the CGCM displays ENSO-type variability that otherwise is absent. The adjustment approach employs a one-way anomaly coupling from the ocean to the atmosphere: heat fluxes seen by the ocean are based on full SST, while heat fluxes seen by the atmosphere are based on anomalies of SST. The latter requires knowledge of the model??s climatological SST field, which is accumulated interactively in the spin-up phase (??training??). Applying the flux correction already during the training period (by utilizing the evolving SST climatology) is necessary for efficiently reducing the bias. The combination of corrected fluxes seen by the atmosphere and uncorrected fluxes seen by the ocean implies a restoring mechanism that counteracts the bias and allows for long stable integrations in our CGCM. A suite of sensitivity runs with varying training periods is utilized to study the effect of different levels of bias in the background state on important ENSO properties. Increased duration of training amplifies the coupled sensitivity in our model and leads to stronger amplitudes and longer periods of the Nino3.4 index, increased emphasis of warm events that is reflected in enhanced skewness, and more pronounced teleconnections in the Pacific. Furthermore, with longer training durations we observe a mode switch of ENSO in our model that closely resembles the observed mode switch related to the mid-1970s ??climate shift??.     

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.     

Are peatlands in different states with respect to their thermodynamic behaviour? A simple test of peatland energy and entropy budgets

Whilst all ecosystems must obey the second law of thermodynamics, these physical bounds and controls on ecosystem evolution and development are largely ignored across the ecohydrological literature. To unravel the importance of these underlying restraints on ecosystem form and function, and their power to inform our scientific understanding, we have calculated the entropy budget of a range of peat ecosystems. We hypothesize that less disturbed peatlands are ‘near equilibrium’ with respect to the second law of thermodynamics and thus respond to change by minimizing entropy production. This ‘near equilibrium’ state is best achieved by limiting evaporative losses. Alternatively, peatlands ‘far-from-equilibrium’ respond to a change in energy inputs by maximizing entropy production which is best achieved by increasing evapotranspiration. To test these alternatives this study examined the energy balance time series from seven peatlands across a disturbance gradient. We estimate the entropy budgets for each and determine how a change in net radiation (ΔR_n) was transferred to a change in latent heat flux (ΔλE). The study showed that: (i) The transfer of net radiation to latent heat differed significantly between peatlands. One group transferred up to 64% of the change in net radiation to a change in latent heat flux, while the second transferred as little as 27%. (ii) Sites that transferred the most energy to latent heat flux were those that produced the greatest entropy. The study shows that an ecosystem could be ‘near equilibrium’ rather than ‘far from equilibrium’.     

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.